Boise State
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
134  Allan Schroeder SR 31:59
155  David Elliott JR 32:05
182  Jeff Howard SR 32:10
210  Aaron Back JR 32:13
274  Drew O'donoghueMcDonald SR 32:28
582  Zach Wiles SR 33:09
865  Kyle Merritt SO 33:39
1,241  Nick Lobb SO 34:10
National Rank #29 of 311
West Region Rank #4 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 15.1%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 4.7%


Regional Champion 0.4%
Top 5 in Regional 66.8%
Top 10 in Regional 99.8%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Allan Schroeder David Elliott Jeff Howard Aaron Back Drew O'donoghueMcDonald Zach Wiles Kyle Merritt Nick Lobb
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 637 32:03 32:06 32:13 31:56 32:42 32:20 33:59
Mountain West Championships 11/01 748 32:09 32:16 32:36 32:00 33:06 33:33 32:41 34:11
West Region Championships 11/15 515 31:37 31:46 31:31 32:40 32:06 33:16 33:56
NCAA Championship 11/23 32:22





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 15.1% 22.7 531 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.5
Region Championship 100% 5.1 170 0.4 1.8 9.2 33.7 21.6 13.9 9.1 5.4 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Allan Schroeder 22.0% 98.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
David Elliott 17.4% 111.1
Jeff Howard 15.9% 125.0
Aaron Back 15.3% 132.6
Drew O'donoghueMcDonald 15.1% 160.9
Zach Wiles 15.1% 228.6
Kyle Merritt 15.2% 245.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Allan Schroeder 21.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.9 1.8 2.5 3.8 3.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.3 4.5 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.7
David Elliott 25.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.7 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2
Jeff Howard 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.0
Aaron Back 31.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.6 3.2 2.9
Drew O'donoghueMcDonald 44.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
Zach Wiles 75.9
Kyle Merritt 98.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.4% 100.0% 0.4 0.4 1
2 1.8% 100.0% 1.8 1.8 2
3 9.2% 66.2% 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.1 3.1 6.1 3
4 33.7% 17.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.5 27.7 6.0 4
5 21.6% 2.8% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 21.0 0.6 5
6 13.9% 0.6% 0.0 0.1 13.8 0.1 6
7 9.1% 9.1 7
8 5.4% 5.4 8
9 3.4% 3.4 9
10 1.3% 1.3 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 0.0% 0.0 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 15.1% 0.4 1.8 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.9 84.9 2.2 12.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 67.8% 1.0 0.7
Southern Utah 6.7% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Duke 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.8
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0